Monday, October 24, 2011

Jobs and Education


If we look to the future, when we talk about outsourcing jobs, when we talk about global competitiveness and our efficiency, none of that matters very much unless we have appropriate training and education for our young people today who are the workforce of tomorrow. It is an economic reality, and we are failing.
- Bill Frist

In the United States, we hold that the classes are not fixed.  We are not bound by titles of nobility, wealth or heredity.  “All men are created equal.”  Class mobility is a hallmark of our national psyche, our ethos.  We bask in the shared glory of those who have risen above their “station in life” and occupy the height of wealth and society.  Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft and a college dropout, is one such person, and when we want to demonstrate that we have a mobile class structure, we can enlist his success to show others that we are a society where anything is possible.  There are, indeed, many, many such stories.

The stories are the exceptions, of course, and not the rule, and everyone knows this deep down, but we always hold out the possibility of success – without considering that there may be both some fundamental and inalterable reasons for class immobility and some factors that may favor mobility that are inherent in the individual. 

My sister-in-law, who is now deceased, argued fervently with me that there are no individual limits to success.  She believed that every person, regardless of any mental or physical limitation, could achieve the same level of success if they were given equal opportunity.  I challenged her belief with what I thought would be an example that was irrefutable; a mentally retarded child could not become a physician.  She was adamant that this should prove to no more than an obstacle to be overcome.  I argued that mental retardation is not only a limitation that would prevent them from retaining the information a physician needs to understand complex medical problems but it would prevent them from deriving a method of evaluating the problems, analyzing the information and prescribing a remedy.  Again, she opined that given opportunities for education appropriate for their level of understanding that the mentally challenged could, in fact, eventually absorb the information and use that information to be effective physicians.

Given my medical training and life experiences, I left that discussion thinking that her reasoning was incredibly naïve.  The mentally challenged could indeed function in society – but at a job and performing tasks appropriate to their abilities.  (I will talk more about this later.)

It occurred to me that, despite a significant number of exceptions, there are people who are poor because they have jobs that do not provide a living wage, but they may be unable to perform tasks that would allow them to take jobs in complex fields such as finance or technology.  There are also, however, people doing simple tasks that make a good wage.  This difference might indeed come from opportunity and training rather than ability alone, but the job must be available to provide that living wage.  The (rare?) exceptions are those that possess incredible intelligence or ability that lack the opportunity to improve their lot.  They can’t afford college; their upbringing did not include incentives to excel.  And so they languish in menial jobs.  A rare few break out of this mold, and that is why they are the rarest of exceptions.  The difference might be parents, scholarships, grants, or possibly even an idea that is marketable. 

My sister-in-law’s attitude was very generous towards the less fortunate, and so she viewed opportunity as the limiting factor in their success of everyone, but I heard another approach towards the less fortunate that was miserly, or at least unsympathetic.  Embracing the same idea that all individuals are equally capable of success, Herman Cain, who is currently a candidate for the Republican nominee for the Presidency, said,

"Don't blame Wall Street, don't blame the big banks, if you don't have a job and you're not rich, blame yourself!  […]  It is not a person's fault because they succeeded, it is a person's fault if they failed.”

Without considering lack of opportunity, mental or physical limitations, Cain has put the blame for poverty squarely on the poor.  My sister-in-law would be very upset with Mr. Cain, but they both share the belief that the poor should be able to succeed regardless of their limitations.

Cain’s attitude, I believe, would remove opportunities, not create them.  Even the best idea requires some investment of capital to be successful.  Who would grant a loan to a proven “failure”?  Who would want to provide a loan for college to a “failure”?  If the poor are to blame for their own failure and resulting poverty, then they may as well be “Dalits”, the untouchables of the Indian caste system.  Cain seems to be implying that if they are poor, it is the fate they deserve.

Regardless whether Mr. Cain meant his remarks to be inspiring to the poor to “work harder” or “make your own opportunities”, the implication remains that the poor have the same abilities as the successful, but they are failures because of other failings:  a failure of will perhaps.

In any event, I have started thinking about the structure of society and the social and economic strata that we have currently.  Ideally, we should have a system that provides opportunity to all to achieve the best possible result, but the aim of that result should also be consistent with ability.  We should not, despite my sister-in-law’s insistence, expect those of limited ability to achieve as much as those of great ability.  We should reward ability, but not punish limitations.


Our task is to provide an education for the kind of kids we have... Not the kind of kids we used to have... Or want to have... Or the kids that exist in our dreams.
- Mary Kay Utecht

In the book, Brave New World by Aldous Huxley, social and economic status was fixed by synthetically augmenting or limiting intelligence.  These strata (alpha, beta, gamma, delta and epsilon) were rigidly enforced by law and science.  The exact percentages of each of the categories of intelligence were precisely created in test tubes so that there would be enough of each “class” to perform the necessary tasks, but not so many that there would be competition and a waste of intelligence or ability, or a burden on society with unneeded numbers of those with deliberately limited or augmented ability or intelligence.  Everyone was supposed to be content with his or her job.  No one was given tasks they were unable to perform, and no one was capable of performing tasks above the degree of difficulty of their assigned jobs.  There were none so disabled that they couldn’t perform some needed task.

Let me be clear that I am not advocating rigid social structure based anything like Brave New World.

If I were to design a Utopian society starting with humanity as it is, instead of humanity as it could be artificially constructed, I would aim for a society where everyone has work that they can do, that they enjoy, and for which they are perfectly suited.  This work, regardless of the type, would provide a means of living that allows for enjoyment of life outside of work.

The challenges of such a Utopian vision are many.  How could we ensure that those of great ability and high intelligence are not trapped in circumstances that fail to take advantage of those qualities?  How can we know that people who are elevated to positions requiring certain qualities actually have those qualities and can function in the jobs they have?

On paper, our capitalistic society has the solution to these problems.  We reward accomplishments, and we provide equal opportunity while not expecting or demanding equal results.  We compensate effort and accomplishment so that everyone receives what they merit, and although we reward different skills differently, there is an ideal that everyone working deserves at least a “living wage.”  We incentivize success and define success in several ways: monetary success, fame or reputation, comfort and health.

On paper, equal opportunity comes from public education where skills are refined and abilities defined.  We have a minimum wage that is supposed to provide for a living wage for even menial jobs, and we have a “social safety net” to prevent those with the least ability, or with significant physical or mental limitations, from starving or dying of preventable and/or treatable diseases.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that reality does not match the vision.  All of the tools are in place to create a Utopian society, but the goal escapes our grasp.  The system has flaws, and without addressing these flaws, the United States will degenerate into an aristocracy and the poor will be neglected.

There are so many variables in the equations that determine how the economy functions that it is not possible to consider them all in a single paper, but the single issue that I wish to address is unemployment.  This issue, however, is in turn affected by many other factors, but rather than considering the working force as a homogenous group of equals, I think it might be helpful to consider the workforce as a Bell-shaped curve where there are broad categories of people who have different potentials.

When we compare the IQ of college graduates to the population, we see that the mean IQ is about 1 standard deviation above average.  This tells us that 1) there are a lot of people who would probably do well in college that have not gone to college and 2) as a measure of accomplishment, college education tends to correlate with higher intelligence. 


I do not mean to suggest that opportunities for college education should be limited to those who meet some arbitrary intelligence criteria, but I do suggest that college is not the only means of enhancing ones ability to work, and we should not be so narrow-minded that we overlook other types of education or training that may be better suited to people that are unlikely to excel in college.

The first condition of education is being able to put someone to wholesome and meaningful work.
- John Ruskin

I would agree with Laurence Lessig that “a safe and prosperous nation requires a well educated youth.”  I would also agree that there are many people who would do well in college that may never have the opportunity, but I disagree that “we can educate our children, including the poorest among us, to achieve college-bound competency” if, by “our children” we mean all of our children.

Almost everyone is capable of performing tasks that can translate into a job.  Almost all tasks require training.  It is my belief that our youth should be prepared for jobs with training that can take place either in high school, on-the-job or in trade schools if they are unable or unwilling to meet the standards set for colleges and universities.

In the last century, jobs were usually plentiful.  Many jobs consisted of relatively routine tasks in manufacturing or agriculture that would not require a college degree.  Our current unemployment crisis has affected these jobs disproportionately more than those that require a college degree, and unemployment among college graduates is approximately 4.1% while unemployment in general is approximately 9.1%.

My sister-in-law would probably argue, along with many educators, that the answer to high unemployment should be for everyone to have a college degree regardless of ability.  A college degree that does not enable the person to perform at a job is nothing but a piece of paper.  The Scarecrow notwithstanding, one does not become more capable or smarter because of a degree.  College does not necessarily provide specific job-ready skills, but instead can be a measure of flexibility, adaptability and aptitude.  There are jobs that are best suited for college graduates, but let’s not presume that all jobs require college education, or that having a college degree makes people more employable in the general workplace.

A realistic plan to promote employment of the population that is not college educated needs to address the fact that jobs for that segment of the population are disappearing.  Task oriented jobs have gone to overseas companies with lower wages (that we would not consider a “living wage”) or to automation.  There is no reversing the trend towards automation, but we can bridge the gap between training and the demand for jobs that require specific training. 

“Economic shifts — some potentially temporary, some permanent — have stranded an increasing number of unemployed workers in job limbo because their skills don't match up with employer demand.”

What I have suggested here may be considered a temporary fix for what may prove to be a permanent problem.  Thinking far, far ahead, what would happen if every routine job, from check-out clerk to truck driver to bank teller, could be replaced with a computer or a robot?  It may seem far-fetched, but look around and you will see it happening. 

Whether we can successfully negotiate the replacement of humans with technology may depend on market forces.  More unemployment might lead to less demand and less reason to consider automation.  Or the reverse:  More unemployment might decrease demand thus driving the trend towards automation in an effort to reduce operating costs.  Whether it augurs a nightmare future or a future of opportunity, it will remain true that “a safe and prosperous nation requires a well educated youth.”

Our challenge is to match education to the needs of society and with the abilities and desires of the individual.  We either meet the challenge or fail as a society.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Double Talk and Persuasion


I saw it tonight with my very own eyes, heard it with my ears.  A cause promoted in the interests of the people was stolen, twisted and regurgitated in a form that would take the steam out of a movement and turn it against itself.

That is exactly what is happening in this country, and it is slicker than slight-of-hand.  In just a few sentences, a politician magically transformed ire against wealth disparity into a call to decrease taxes on the wealthy.

Huh?  I still can’t believe it, but it is becoming almost routine.  It may not work with the Occupy Wall Street crowd, but it has worked in other ways for millions of Americans who saw their anger at Wall Street’s disastrous gamble being bailed out by the taxpayers transformed into a call for deregulation of Wall Street.

Huh?

Hard to believe?  Let me start with tonight.  Eric Cantor, who not long ago expressed his concern about the “mobs” occupying Wall Street and other cities around the country, said that he understands their concerns about wealth disparity.  The Republicans are all about upward mobility fairness, he said.  And to help those whose incomes have been stagnant, he, Eric Cantor, has a plan.  The plan will increase jobs and salaries by encouraging the 1% to create jobs by – wait for it – decreasing taxes on the wealthy by 10%.

Huh?



At a time when the wealthiest 1% saw their income increase by over $1,000,000.00 a year, with the lowest tax rates in half a century and special tax breaks only for the wealthy, Eric Cantor wants to give the wealthy more tax breaks so that they will have more money to invest in jobs. 

One imagines the wealthy sleeping on mattresses stuffed with hundred dollar bills and having problems finding places to store more cash.  What in the world will they do with more money?  And what makes Representative Cantor think giving them more will help the average American?  Certainly not history.

With politics so highly polarized, the TEA party’s transformation from a populist movement to a highly conservative, maybe even regressive, movement almost escaped my notice.  Their messages were sometimes mixed with foolishness and racism, and their obvious dislike of Obama invited Democrats to see them as “the enemy.”  Most Democrats see the elections of 2010 and the obstructionism after that as vindication of the “us versus them” polarity, and polls that show the majority of the TEA party are, in fact, Republicans substantiate that.

Something happened that changed my mind a bit; not about the TEA party’s influence or the way that their voters have affected elections, but about what the movement was really about in the first place.  I noticed that the actual complaints from the Occupy Wall Street were almost identical to those of the TEA party at the very start of the movement.

To wit: 

The TEA party objected to “bailouts” of Wall Street and other businesses.  Taxpayer money was being funneled into financial institutions with virtually no accountability right after Wall Street had blown trillions on high stakes gambling with “derivatives” and other practices that were permitted by the deregulation of Wall Street.

Why would this group support further deregulation of Wall Street?  Why would this group support tax subsidies for corporations making billions of dollars in profits?  Why would this group insist that the wealthiest of the wealthy need more tax breaks?

The TEA party was upset when they thought the Democrats might make cuts in Medicare.  The screamed “Death Panels” when they thought the cost cutting measures of Medicare might lead to the need for Medicare to approve some charges and not others that might allow hopeless cases to die rather than receive treatment.  The most mixed up message was, “Keep your government hands off my Medicare!”

Why would this group support the repeal of Medicare as we know it?

Democrats have been perplexed at how people could vote against their best interests and vote in favor of those who we can call the 1%, and rightly so, but the more perplexing thing is how they seem to be voting against the very things that inflamed the movement to begin with.

The extremely conservative Republicans whose support comes primarily from the extremely wealthy have (almost) perfected the art of getting people to support the exact opposite of what they want and even what they need.  The mental manipulation could have been taken from a book on “How to make a cult.”

There may be several steps, but they follow a pattern.

1.     Sympathize with the interests of the group.
2.     Equate these interests with some aspect of their own agenda.
3.     Change the nature of the complaint (misdirect)
4.     Voice their agenda as the goal of the group.

A group or cause that has had their message thus transformed may have buyer’s remorse and so may regret endorsing this agenda, but they also have cognitive dissonance, bolstered by a loyalty and trust (that was misused).  If the misdirection is at least superficially logical and fits with their other values, they will find a way to support the substituted agenda.  Both the group and the conservative cheerleaders (emphasis on “leaders”) may use confirmation bias and selective ignorance to avoid further cognitive dissonance.

In steps two and three, simplification to the point of oversimplification can take a complicated issue and effectively make the issue itself disappear. 

When I reviewed the speeches, I found specific rhetorical cues that identify when the message is being changed.  I’ll present some later, but first let me give examples of how specific messages were changed.  Hijacked would be a better word perhaps…

1.     Wall Street Bailouts
Republicans said they too were against bailouts and blamed them on the Democrats even though the TARP program was devised and initiated by President Bush.  They said that Government was to blame.  Governments are bad because they do things like bailouts and over regulation.  “We need to fight government regulation!”

2.     Medicare
Republicans said they supported Medicare and were horrified by the prospect of cutting these programs.  Excessive government spending will mean that programs like Medicare will become insolvent.  Government giveaways and “entitlement programs” like welfare caused this country to near bankruptcy.  We need to cut or eliminate entitlement programs – like Medicare.

I have been focusing on these two items, but there are many other similar examples.  Elimination of the EPA, for example, was seemingly out of left field, but by equating this with government spending and regulation (which they consistently aligned with government “on their backs”) they made the EPA a target of the TEA party.

The TEA party wasn’t persuaded to support a radical approach to government that would leave businesses to squeeze customers, cheat customers and pollute their customers; they were tricked into supporting these causes.

Cognitive dissonance leaves them unable to back away from these caustic and harmful positions because they are told that they supported them from the beginning.

Quite a trick, isn’t it?

Changing the emphasis from rebuilding roads and bridges, hiring policemen, firefighters and teachers to government spending and taxes taken from the working people can make people who complain about the lack of good roads, disintegrating bridges, lack of law enforcement, inadequate response of fire departments and the poor quality of education support letting the roads and bridges fall apart and firing public workers.

I have a friend who had decided that Medicare should be eliminated.  He was on dialysis from diabetic kidney disease when he voiced this complaint and he subsequently received a kidney transplant – both funded entirely by Medicare through the Medicare Special Needs Plan.  Without this support, he would have died.  He had become convinced that his own health was subordinate to the evil that is “government spending and taxation.”

Consider that a Republican congressman or congresswoman that belittles public sector employees and their “overgenerous health and retirement plans”:
1.  Is a public sector employee
2.  Makes more than almost all other public sector employees
3.  Has one of the best health care plans in the world
4.  Has one of the best retirement plans in the world

The rhetorical tricks I mentioned parallel the steps I mentioned that are used to change a group’s message into their own agenda.

“We can all agree that…”
And the game is on.  They sympathize with the concerns expressed.

“The cause of [your concern] is something we’ve known for a long time…”
Their cause is your cause?  Really?

“We know that…”
Taxes hurt business?  The wealthy invest when they have money to invest?  Poor people are lazy?  This is where misdirection becomes an art, and oversimplification makes complicated problems easy to define in terms that are both misleading and enticing at the same time.  The twisted logic plays on the patriotism, prejudices and preconceptions of the people and ignores facts and history.

“The only solution to this problem is…”
Beware of the word “only”.  Their solutions address their misdirection instead of the original concern, but since they have tied the original concern to their agenda the solution will seem to follow, even if the solution will exacerbate their concerns.

I didn’t pay much attention to this when it was happening at first.  I just marveled that people could be led to believe that their interests were being addressed by actions counter to their interests.

Now that I understand, I can explain that vague feeling of nausea I get when I hear Eric Cantor speak.

“Job Creators”…. 

Excuse me for a moment-




Even understanding this cannot explain why Eric Cantor and his colleagues push an agenda that benefits the wealthiest while harming the rest of the country.  In order to understand that, it is necessary to examine the influence of Money in Politics.

That, too, leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Getting Started


I have only barely begun reading Republic, Lost:  How Money Corrupts Congress – and a Plan to Stop It by Laurence Lessig, and I am astonished at how the author’s understanding of the current political and economic problems is so much like my own.  I know I should finish the book before commenting, but I can’t wait.  Just from the Preface and Introduction (the only two parts I have read), I find echoes of what I have written in this blog and elsewhere. 

The first thing Lessig mentions in the Preface is the need for campaign finance and how crucial that is to the problems we face.  I couldn’t agree more.  In fact, I bought this book hoping that campaign finance reform would be a central issue.

In the Introduction, he begins by describing the national sense of despair and hopelessness.  I had taken note of that as well, and while I think his writing is clearer and more focused than my ramblings, the sentiment is the same.  His focus is on the Republic and governance, but there was a sentence that reminded me of a Photoshop image I made.  The quote is “We inherited an extraordinary estate.  On our watch, we have let it fall to ruin.”  My artwork, intended to metaphorically show what is happening to our government, entitled “Capitol Ruins”, looks like this:




He describes the gridlock and futility of attempting compromise, also a favorite subject of mine, one that is upsetting to a large number of Americans if we can judge by the recent polls on the approval rating of Congress at 11%, the lowest it has been since such measurements have been taken.  Lessig is much more sympathetic towards the people that are creating or perpetuating this gridlock, but I did at least express some understanding of how a person can be influenced without understanding that he or she has been influenced.

The influence of money, which lies at the heart of our discontent, and how that has come about and why it is non-partisan are subjects that I’m sure he will discuss in great detail in the subsequent chapters judging by the following quote:

“We have created an engine of influence that seeks not some particular strand of political or economic ideology, whether Marx or Hayek.  We have created instead an engine of influence that seeks simply to make those most connected rich.”

I have spent a great deal of effort on a subject that Lessig touches upon towards the end of the Preface, the lack of response of our government to the will of the people.  My solution, a National Poll, is probably impractical, perhaps even impossible, but the problem remains central to the issue of a lack of trust in government.  Measuring this Will has never been a priority, and our will has been replaced with the will of special interests.  Lessig presents this problem as one of two elements of corruption.

“This corruption has two elements, each of which feeds the other.  The first element is bad governance, which means simply that our government doesn’t track the expressed will of the people, whether on the Left or the Right.  Instead, the government tracks a different interest, one not directly affected by votes or voters.  Democracy, on this account, seems a show or a ruse; power rests elsewhere.”

Finally, at the very end of the Introduction, he uses a metaphor dear to my heart as a physician.  This is the metaphor that guided my choice of URL for my blog, prognosisforus.blogspot.com.

“The prognosis is not good.  The disease we face is not one that nations cure, or, at least, cure easily.”

The more that is written about the issues we face and proposals for resolving our problems, the better.  Despite my enthusiasm, I am still ignorant about much of the underlying history and the solutions being proposed, but I plan to educate myself.  Starting with this book, Republic, Lost.